ModelRefs / Uncertainty Quantification — AI Glossary

Uncertainty Quantification — AI Glossary

Methods for estimating how confident a model is in its outputs, distinguishing epistemic (model) from aleatoric (data) uncertainty.

Overview

LLM uncertainty estimation: logprob aggregation (perplexity of the generated sequence), verbalized confidence ('I am 80% confident that…'), sampling-based (how consistent are N samples?), and conformal prediction for calibrated coverage guarantees. Critical for high-stakes applications where knowing when not to trust the model is as important as the answer itself.

Reference details

Topicevaluation
Also known asconfidence estimation, model confidence
Last reviewed2026-06-24

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Frequently asked questions

What is Uncertainty Quantification?

Methods for estimating how confident a model is in its outputs, distinguishing epistemic (model) from aleatoric (data) uncertainty.

Is Uncertainty Quantification the same as confidence estimation?

Yes — confidence estimation, model confidence are common aliases for Uncertainty Quantification.

What concepts are related to Uncertainty Quantification?

Closely related concepts include calibration, logprobs, abstention.